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A tilted grid of dark violet tiles with a diagonal run of gold ones: the keys that fail together in a multisig

research · bitcoin

How Safe Is My Multisig?

An exercise in modeling p(lose quorum) with Monte Carlo simulation. The ColdCard hack brought a fresh, energized demand for multisigs under the assumption that a multisig setup is unequivocally safer than a single key. But is this strictly true? Doesn't it vary based on participants, threshold, lost keys, check-ins? In this article we build a framework to approximate p(lose quorum), or, in other words, to answer: how safe is your multisig setup?

research · Sep 22, 2026

research

The Covenants Use-Case Atlas

Twenty-four covenants, one grammar. Hover a tile: it flips & plays its mechanism. The UTXO is consumed by its stencil, & what the covenant committed to emerges.

research · Aug 19, 2026

26,751 reachable nodes rendered as a cloud of dots collapsing into a row of ten: the 10 nodes that receive more than half of monthly economic flow

research

What Is an Economic Node?

A post-mortem of BIP110 & an attempt to answer the question “what is an economic node?” Many decentralization metrics were brought up prior to activation. This piece defines the object those metrics missed, reviews various measurement frameworks, & conducts our own analysis. While the reachable independent node population hovers around ~27k clearnet nodes, the research indicates that the number of “economically relevant” nodes in a fork war might be closer to 10.

research · Aug 18, 2026

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